The Luxury of Certainty

 One of the most frustrating and anxiety producing traits of our COVID –19 pandemic is how much uncertainty is involved in all aspects of this disease. Symptoms caused by the Coronavirus, age groups affected, the usefulness of medications, anticipated death rate and the timeline for development of a vaccine are examples of information that sometimes change on a weekly basis.  Many of us are almost immobilized by the unknown risk of acquiring COVID –19, how severe it will be and who we could possibly infect. 

On June 1the self-quarantine requirement for out of state visitors will be lifted and people from all over the world will visit our communities–many of them friends and family.  Our Governor’s phase 2 plan will begin allowing for expanded capacity in our restaurants (75%) and larger events (50 persons).  Links to complete phase 2 guidelines can be found at Carbonalert.org. Montanans have done a great job of limiting the spread of the virus and protecting our most vulnerable neighbors by following the stay-at-home and Phase 1 recommendations in the past few months. All other states but Alaska have more active cases of COVID-19 infection than Montana. As the states open up and begin to re-connect, we fully expect to see a rise in COVID –19 cases in Montana.  Thankfully, we have had time to prepare for this increase.  We also have ample PPE and tests to protect our most vulnerable citizens.  Soon, we will introduce our aggressive and transparent plan for monitoring the virus in Carbon County so we can quickly trace and isolate those infected and exposed. This information will also allow us to discover the most common environments (i.e. restaurants, events, travel) for transmission so we can target our response to avoid widespread closures. 

Despite our preparedness, uncertainty persists.   How busy will Carbon County communities be this summer?   How do we calculate risk as we engage with our friends and families?   I find it helpful to try to avoid focusing on the uncertainties, but instead to frequently remind myself what we do know about avoiding COVID-19. Here is a list which may help you to decide how this “new normal” looks for you: 

1. Most large hospitals, often treating over 1000 COVID patients daily, effectively protected their workers by obsessively following the rules of screening, hygiene, distancing, and masking. 
2. The rules above are designed to work together – as each alone has its inherent limits. 
3. Absent quick testing at the workplace, the best screening is asking employees (or ourselves) if they have COVID- like symptoms (fever, chills, new cough, shortness of breath, sore throat, loss of taste or smell) and to stay home if they do. 
4. Washing our hands (or using sanitizer) after touching well-handled items or in populated areas. Washing your hands ten times daily is not too often. 
5. Though an uncovered sneeze or cough can travel farther, 6 feet distancing continues to be the sweet spot for safety.
6. Masks (double layer cotton, surgical) are effective to prevent spreading of large and some small droplets containing virus. They also seem to give some minimal protection to those wearing a mask. Since possibly 40% of transmission happens when we do not have symptoms, we wear our masks to protect others and to suppress overall infection rate.  They also help many people (not all) to avoid touching their face. Our restaurant servers, store clerks, patrons visiting our businesses and all of us communicating directly with the public should be using masks. The downside is a warm chin, the upside is you may be protecting someone from a significant illness. Masks are not a symbol of government intrusion. Masks are simply a tool to protect others and show empathy.